Climate change threatens Indian agricultural growth. BY PROF Ghulam Mohyuddin Wani FORMER PROFESSOR,DIRECTOR OF SK AGRIC UNIVERSITY,Kashmir, AND CHIEF CONSULTANT AH GOVT OF INDIA, 4 BISMILLAH COLONY, POST OFFICE, SANTNAGAR, SRINAGAR, 190005,India. EMAIL.firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Phones 09419389066 1. Abstract The poverty eradication, access to adequate food, clean water, and other resources seem difficult to be achieved in India under changing climate threats. The Delhi Ministerial Declaration on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, adopted at CoP-8 (the eighth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), also affirmed this. The frequent floods, landslides, crop and animal disease epidemics result in loss of life and property. Global warming will lead to low precipitation. The rain-fed agriculture supports livelihood of a large population in India,thus climatic changes are bound to effect them. Methodology and data collection The first stage of the project involved the development of vulnerability profiles for Indian agriculture. Districts that are vulnerable to both climatic change and economic changes were identified. Data was gathered on social vulnerability (percentage of landless labourers in the agricultural workforce, literacy rates), infrastructure development, biophysical conditions (soil quality, groundwater availability), climate (Rainfall patterns, evapotranspiration patterns), agriculture (crops, productivity), and transportation (distance from ports). These were combined into vulnerability indices and mapped as vulnerability profiles The review of the results obtained by various working groups has been described. A brief conclusion is as 1.ARGRICULTURAL EXPORTS The agriculture and allied activities constitute 25 % of India's gross domestic product. It provides employment to two-thirds of the total workforce. The share of Indian agricultural products is 15% of the total export earnings. 2. FOOD SECURITY TARGETS Wheat accounts for one-third of the total food grain production in India, while rice forms 43% of the total and is cultivated in43 mha (million hectares), which is about 30% of the net cultivated area. During the last decade, food grain production registered an annual compound growth rate of over 3% 3.NET SOWN AREA The net sown area will have to be increased to 145 mha and the cropping intensity to 145% by 2050 4.AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY Agricultural productivity is sensitive to two broad classes of climate-induced effects—(A) direct effects from changes in temperature, precipitation, or carbon dioxide concentrations, and (B) indirect effects through changes in soil moisture and the distribution and frequency of infestation by pests and diseases. 5.YIELD DECLINE The rice and wheat yields could decline considerably with climatic changes (IPCC 1996; 2001). However, the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change depends not only on the physiological response of the affected plant, but also on the ability of the affected socio-economic systems of production to cope with changes in yield, as well as with changes in the frequency of droughts or floods. 6.ADAPTABLE FARMING The adaptability of farmers in India is severely restricted by the heavy reliance on natural factors and the lack of complementary inputs and systems.